10th of November, 2016

The heavy rains that much of Australia has recently experienced is an excellent reminder of how our thoughts today do not necessarily reflect the reality of tomorrow.

In 2008 the GFC wasn’t the only thing causing emotions to run high!

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent.” Said Bureau of Meteorology head of climate analysis, David Jones.

The Greens leader Bob Brown claimed drought “is the new norm across Australia”.

Passions were at feverish levels – as AGAIN, ‘This Time Is Different!”

Like in the Dot.Com boom where Clicks and Mortar was the saying of the day. We were warned that the explosive growth of the World Wide Web “threatened to end commercial property’s once fundamental role in modern economic societies”.

Tech companies didn’t ‘need’ to make profits or even ‘have’ a revenue stream – it was different this time, a new paradigm. Until it wasn’t!

And China’s need for our resources – well that is until they didn’t?! The industrialisation of China was going to run for generations, or until the hole in the Pilbara was so big we could just pass material directly through it to China…….

Yet now it is raining – water is pooling everywhere. So much water all we can do with it is tip it into the ocean. With dam levels at near capacity things have again changed. The drought has broken in many parts of Australia and no longer are residents of our major cities on water rations, restricted as to when and how they can water their gardens.

Sir John Templeton said the four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’

So when someone tells you how this time its different –

tell them the Dams are full.

Let’s get started

If you want to avoid the mistakes of not understanding the dangers of investing without an understanding of the Economic Cycle, then why not have a chat to us about how we can help?

You have nothing to lose except a few minutes of your time and everything to gain.

So… let’s get started.

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