Pinpointing The Mid-Cycle – Tulips, Hyacinths And 2021

10th of October, 2018

What do Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021 all have in common?

Sounds like the start to some sort of a really bad “Dad Joke”….

But as investors, I’m deadly serious when I ask you this question?

The Tulip Mania of 1637 is well documented.

But what is the link to Hyacinths and 2021?

Studying, researching and most importantly learning from history gives us a huge edge with our investing – and this is exactly what Phil Anderson will be presenting on at our Forecasting Conference this November. Phil will be presenting on both the Saturday and Sunday.

Phillip AndersonPhil’s presentation “Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021” will link the Tulip Mania, the Hyacinths Boom and Collapse as well as several other long and medium-term cycles to pinpoint what is likely to trigger the Mid-Cycle, the following Boom and the subsequent Bust.

Knowing and understanding history makes us significantly better investors.

Our network at Calnan Flack sets us apart as it enables us to research a diverse array of topics in record time. Unfortunately, most ideas and research lead to nothing or very little so it’s easy to burn a lot of time looking under rocks or down rabbit holes without anything to show for it.

However, because we have such a wide array of minds pursuing all sorts of research projects we come across lots of hidden gems.

Like Phil, we all spend days, weeks and months researching – it is long and tiring Yet, often inspiring work.

Our research approach ensures that as investment professionals we stay fresh and unique. We see and approach markets differently to our peers. In the investment industry too often, the status quo is acceptable. Mediocrity is acceptable as participants are too frightened to be wrong. Better to be average than alone? Or so they think!

This helps explain the massive growth in Index Funds and ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund) that has occurred – it really makes sense when you think about it. (Currently, in Australia there are nearly 180 different ETF’s with a total market cap of approximately $46,206,805,000.)

See if you only strive to be just a little worse than average at best, (ie perform like the index less fees) then it makes sense to squeeze fees as low as you can, so the lowest cost ETF’s are going to continue to attract a lot of funds.

Calnan Flack is not here to produce average results – we want superior results.

To do this we need to stand alone and look at the markets differently.

The Calnan Flack Research Team includes

  • Phil Anderson

  • Robert Vagg

  • Jeremy Calnan

  • Ian Flack

  • Elizabeth Flack

  • Alan Calnan

  • Our many subscribers who send us all sorts of interesting personal research pieces

We think and act differently and use our research to support our decisions.

Calnan Flack has an open and auditable record of doing so. We stand behind our investment Funds and even go to the extraordinary lengths of running our annual Forecasting Conference where we openly and publicly put our money where our mouths are.

We continually put our research on display. We are also fortunate to have colleagues of the calibre of Robert Vagg and Phil Anderson agree to share their research with our group.

Teaching for us is a very important part of our business because we believe it is important for clients to understand our methodology and also, we learn so much from teaching. It provides an outlet and impetus for our research.

We learn from participants and their questions often open us up to new areas of research that we might not have thought of.

Phil wrote the most amazing book – “The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking” – that was the consolidation of his years of research into the Real Estate Cycle. He made his research public so people would be able to read and learn.

Robert has done the same with much of his research including his Composite and Vagg Lines.

This sort of research is just the start, there is so much more for us to share with you.

So, join us at our November Forecasting Conference and allow us to demonstrate our latest research and our current thinking about where we are in the current Investment & Real Estate Cycle.

fORECASTING cONFERENCE – full details

Let’s get started

If you want to avoid the mistakes of not understanding the dangers of investing without an understanding of the Economic Cycle, then why not have a chat to us about how we can help?

You have nothing to lose except a few minutes of your time and everything to gain.

So… let’s get started.

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Disclaimer: Any opinions or recommendations expressed here do not purport to Financial Advice but rather should be considered General Advice and does not take into account your personal needs and objectives or your financial circumstances. You should therefore consider these matters yourself before deciding whether the advice is appropriate to you and whether you should act upon it. Should Financial Advice be sought, we suggest you seek such advice from an appropriately qualified advisor. Any growth rates, yields, rental income, tax rates, interest rates, depreciation rates, inflation rates Dividends per Share (DPS) and Earning Per Share (EPS) etc shown are estimates only and should not be used as a guide to future performance. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and should not be relied upon for this purpose. Authorised Representative of PGW Financial Services Pty Ltd – AFSL 384713 ABN 15 123 835 441.